Say Yes to New Adventures

Yes, I struggled to find out if the team was overestimating or underestimating tickets.

An Agile Project Manager is mediocre if they can't spot this problem early enough. Today, we'll explore how to keep your team’s estimations accurate to ensure better sprint delivery.

Story estimation is the starting point of sprint planning and its effective delivery. If not done right, it can result in missing the sprint goal.

But how do you know if the team is underestimating or overestimating the work?

Underestimation can be spotted when tickets that were estimated to take just a couple of days drag on and on. One ticket dragging is okay. But if you see multiple tickets dragging, it's a confirmed sign of underestimation. As a result, by the end of the sprint, you're left with several incomplete tickets, also known as spillover.

Moving on, overestimation is the exact opposite of underestimation. You'll find tickets finishing sooner than anticipated. Again, one ticket finishing sooner is not a problem. But if you see multiple tickets finishing sooner, it’s a sign of overestimation. If not spotted early, it will result in scrambling for more work at the last minute or the risk of team members sitting idle.

As an Agile Project Manager, you should watch for these trends during the Daily Standup Meeting. Spotting these trends before the sprint finishes will give you an edge and allow you to reset expectations with stakeholders. This is what will help you stand out from a mediocre Agile Project Manager. If you are committed to being an excellent Agile Project Manager, consider joining my Agile Project Manager course.

How to confirm if it’s a long term trend ? 

Dive into your team's velocity chart over the past few sprints. Are you seeing a consistent gap between the planned and completed work? That’s a red flag for over or underestimation. Smaller gaps are no problem, but consistent bigger gaps are worth investigating.

Now that the long term trend is confirmed, let’s see how to address it. I have three strategies that are proven and have given me fantastic results.

• The first strategy, and my favourite, is Prevention. In this strategy, you set up the processes in a way that leaves limited to no room for over or underestimation, thereby preventing such hassles. If you want to know more about that, consider joining my Agile Project Manager course.
• Next strategy is Story Splitting. Sometimes, stories are just too large and complex that leads to incorrect estimation. Engage in story splitting to break down big stories into smaller, more manageable ones. This often leads to more precise estimates.
• Next, leverage your retrospectives. These are powerful tools for honest reflection. Ask your team to evaluate their estimation accuracy. Encourage open discussions and use techniques like the "5 Whys" to dig deeper into any discrepancies.

If you think these strategies didn't work for you in the past, then considering joining my telegram channel to get help. In case if you want a quick help and prefer discussion then schedule a time on my calendar.

By reviewing historical data, conducting honest retrospectives, and splitting stories, you can identify and address overestimation in your team. Remember, estimation is about being realistic and continuously improving.